The digital currency exchange and wallet service Coinbase, founded in 2012 and backed by Silicon Valley investors, recently told shareholders that it booked $1 billion in revenue in 2017. A new independent analysis says about 43 percent of that came in December when the price of bitcoin was surging, and the company’s revenue has plummeted since then.

“By no stretch of the imagination are they continuing that same trajectory,” says Jonathan Meiri, CEO of Superfly Insights, which analyzes data about consumer behavior. “There is a rise up in December. It’s not like it stayed on this plateau into January, February. It came crashing down.”

Superfly Insights’ Coinbase analysis is based on anonymized and aggregated data from user email receipts from about 25,000 users through 2017 and the first six weeks of 2018, Meiri says. The data were collected through productivity apps, personal finance apps, and expense management apps. Superfly Insights typically provides this type of data and analysis to its clients, which include hedge funds, banks, and venture capital firms. It also provides data and analysis to KPMG, Meiri told me, and “three out of the top five ride hailing companies in the world.” The data collection is stated in the terms of use for each app or service involved, Meiri says, and the tracking is compliant with Europe’s strict new privacy law, the General Data Protection Regulation.

The 43 percent figure lines up with what investors told Recode in January: Coinbase was expected to do about $600…